I realise that I’ve been bandying around decimal and fractional odds, and spread terminology like I know what I’m talking about. Time for an explanation.
Decimal odds quoted in the form 4.00 would return £4.00 for a £1.00 bet, including stake. It's equivalent to fractional odds of 3/1. So 1.77 is about 10/13 on.
Traditional bookies tend to quote fractional odds. Betting exchanges like Betfair tend to quote decimals. The advantage of an exchange is (a) odds better by about 10%, once their 5% commission is deducted, and (b) being able to lay against a team, handy when for example you think we might get at least a draw at White Hart Lane.
Spread betting returns depend on the actual score. Sporting Index will quote something like England/Australia 4 - 7. If you Buy England, then every point advantage over 7 will pay out your stake. If they win 32 points to 12, you get (20 minus 7) times a pound = £13.
If you Sell England, then you reckon that England will win by less than 4, or Australia will win. Every point below an England win by 4 returns your stake. A 2 point Australian victory returns £6. However: a 20 point England win loses you (20 minus 4) times your stake = a £16 loss.
If Jonny Wilkinson is indeed nobbled during the week and Australia suddenly become strong favourites, the spread would be quoted something like Australia/England 13 - 16.
If all that sounds like I've no idea what I'm up to, then that must be why I've lost so badly in recent weeks.
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